Investment firm Macquarie Group still expects its profit to rise in the current fiscal year, so long as financial market conditions continue to improve.
In a presentation to be delivered to analysts in Hong Kong this week, Macquarie has reiterated its guidance of profit growth in its fiscal year to March 31, 2014.
The company made an $851 million profit in fiscal 2013.
"FY14 result for the group is expected to be an improvement on FY13 provided market conditions for FY14 are not worse than those experienced over the past 12 months," the company said.
Macquarie's profit in the first half of the year is likely to be similar to that posted in the previous year's second half.
But improvement is expected in the second half of this year, it said.
Improving financial market conditions and a weaker Australian dollar remain the two key reasons for Macquarie's forecast.
Healthier capital markets are expected to benefit Macquarie's markets-exposed businesses, such as its brokerage and research business Macquarie Securities.
Its fixed payment investment businesses, including Macquarie Bank, are expected to post a stable profit performance in the fiscal 2014 year.
With about 63 per cent of Macquarie's income generated overseas, a lower Australian dollar also proves beneficial for the company.
A 10 per cent movement in the Australian dollar will have a six per cent impact on earnings, all things being equal, the company has said.
The Australian dollar fell by 12.5 per cent between the start of Macquarie's fiscal 2014 year - April 1 - and the end of its first quarter on June 30.
But recent gains by the Australian dollar have slightly narrowed that fall.
Macquarie shares have risen by almost 35 per cent since April 1, but dropped 88 cents, or 1.8 per cent, to $49.12 on Monday.
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